Markets were bifurcated on the re nomination of Fed Chair Powell. It is widely assumed he will not alter the path of monetary policy. At casual observation, several bulge bracket firms have issued warnings that volatility in the markets can rise considerably. Morgan Stanly believes the NASDAQ can stage a quick 10%-15% decline. Bank America … Read more
October’s labor report surprised on the upside. Both non-farm and private sector payrolls exceeded expectations, average hourly met expectations as did average hourly hours worked. It is evident higher wages are at helping employers fill near record job openings. The labor participation rate however remained unchanged at 61.6% versus a 61.7% estimate. As widely noted … Read more
The October Employment report is released at 8:30. Analysts are expecting a 450,000 and 420,000 increase in non-farm and private sector payrolls, respectively, a 4.7% unemployment rate, a 04% increase in average hourly earnings, a 34.8 hour work week and a 61.8% labor participation rate (LPR). As with past reports, considerable attention will be focused … Read more
Wow! What a week! The election outcome in New Jersey and Virginia was not expected. Volumes have already been written about the infinite number of potential ramifications. Then there is the Fed meeting. The Federal Reserve will begin winding down its monthly asset purchases later this month at a pace of $15 billion per month, … Read more
The outcome of the two-day FOMC meeting will be announced at 2:00. It is widely expected the central bank will commence tapering in November or perhaps December. The question at hand is whether or not it will change its time line as to when it intends to increase the overnight rate. As noted several times, … Read more
Value led yesterday’s decline perhaps the result of a disappointing ISM non-manufacturing report. The service sector is not expanding as strong as expected, primarily the result of a dearth of workers. The order backlog was the highest in the group’s data going back to 1997. Prices paid surged by the greatest amount in history going … Read more
WOW!!!!!!!!!! Was May’s employment data the ultimate Black swan event????? In my view yes as the data was the biggest surprise in my 34 years in this industry. Bloomberg validated this view by write “the biggest single month miss on the payrolls report was 318,000 in February 2003.” The labor report is regarded as the … Read more
Jobless claims surged by 6.64 million, vastly exceeding the 3.6 million estimate. In two weeks, the economy has lost over 10 million jobs, eclipsing the approximate 8.6 million jobs lost in the first seven months of the Great Recession. More are expected to come albeit maybe not at this level. Wow! This is really ugly. … Read more
Stocks edged lower as all weighed the chances that the US will scrap a tariff hike on Chinese goods scheduled for December 15. Treasuries also dropped in price as jobless claims fell to a seven month low. Oil was whipsawed as OPEC reached an agreement that adjusts it official production targets by an additional 500,000/day … Read more
Equities advanced and bonds fell on speculation the US and China will reach a deal that avoids tariffs due to take hold in 11 days. The advance/decline almost reverses the prior day gyration. Oil continued to surge as OPEC is expected to announce greater production cuts. There was also a larger than expected draw down … Read more
