It has been an incredible six months. Few were able to predict how quickly the narrative changed from global synchronized recovery to global synchronized slowdown. Even fewer predicted how swiftly the Federal Reserve would change course, with the markets going from pricing in three interest rate increases this year to three reductions. And even fewer … Read more
Stocks advanced globally after the US and China reached a fresh truce in the trade war and agreed to resume talks towards a deal.. Gold and Treasuries retreated and oil is surging trading at the highest level in six weeks, entering into a new bull market. Second quarter earnings season is about to commence. Overall … Read more
Was yesterday a day of significance? Oil advanced over 2% as several oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman. As widely noted, oil has plunged since sanctions were levied on Iran as inventories have surged. Many, including me, expected inventories to fall given these sanctions, the Venezuelan implosion, erratic shipments from both Nigeria … Read more
Equities fell for a myriad of reasons. Technology stocks just posted their best six day stretch in 7 ½ years—up nearly 9%–fell about 1.5%. The reasons for the decline varied but a major catalyst were reports that Facebook was aware of privacy issues, did little about it and did not put compliance with the FTC order … Read more
The tech heavy NASDAQ fell 1.4% as many are on edge over the impending trade war. As noted many times 59% of technology sales are abroad and the majority of production facilities are domiciled in China. As also discussed the concentration of funds in the technology sector is around or at a historic proportion. I … Read more
Equities rose, the result of earnings and stronger than expected economic data. Trade tensions still remained at the forefront albeit was not weighing upon market sentiment. Oil also rose on rising Persian Gulf tensions, tensions that some believe are at the brink of war. As noted yesterday a geopolitical premium is all but absent in … Read more
The NASDAQ 100 is up over 23% for the year. Approximate half of the gains are from four stocks according to Bloomberg. What is more striking the NASDAQ 100 has hit three consecutive highs while the equal weight index fell during all those sessions, also according to Bloomberg. Continuing with this theme, growth shares, aka … Read more
Fortune Magazine commented in late January “Bond yields [are] historically low and inflation seemed negligible: Wages [are] going nowhere, companies dare not raise prices to avoid losing market share. Bond market vigilantes have been pounded into submission.” As widely noted since November the 10-year Treasury has rallied about 70 basis points from around a 3.30% … Read more
Equities surged on Friday on trade and consumer optimism. The markets ignored the controversies in Washington believing at this juncture DC is nothing but a freak show. Oil continued its advance, rising to three month highs on the belief that Russia and Saudi Arabia will indeed reduce production to levels greater than agreed upon two … Read more
Initial data indicate retail sales fell by 1.2% in December from the previous month, the most since 2009. Most had expected an increase. What is even more confusing there was a pullback in a measure based largely on internet sales, which had been expected to the retailing industry’s saving grace this holiday season. The report … Read more
