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CPI AT 8:30

May’s CPI is posted at 8:30.  Has inflation peaked? The CPI for April rose 8.3%, down from 8.5% the prior month, but still close to the biggest increase in four decades. Annual inflation likely climbed at an 8.2% pace in May according to Bloomberg. This is more than four times the levels seen before the … Read more

SOME SOBERING STATISTICS

The S & P 500 is almost officially in a bear market defined as a drop of 20% or more.  Friday’s decline is part of a seven-week slide which is qualifies as the longest weekly decline since the dot.com bubble bursting in 2001 according to Bloomberg.  According to CNBC, this is the longest weekly decline … Read more

CPI AT 8:30

Markets were bifurcated in very volatile trading.  The tech heavy NASDAQ 100 outperformed yesterday.  Bloomberg writes over 50% of the NASDAQ is down over 50% for the year.  Goldman Sach’s list of the 25 most widely owned stocks is down an average of 52% YTD. Continuing with the dour statistics, of the twenty-five most widely … Read more

FIRST QUARTER GDP AT 8:30

Initial estimates of first quarter GDP is released at 8:30.  Consensus is expecting a 1.0% annual growth rate, personal consumption to increase by 3.5% and the GDP price index to rise by 7.2%. The core PCE or the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation is forecasted to increase by 5.5%, the greatest gain in forty … Read more

ANOTHER UGLY DAY

Covid in China, war in Europe and changing perceptions about the invincibility and massive ownership of Big Tech companies are reasons slated for the plunge in the NASDAQ.  The five-day 8.3% plunge is even causing the most ardent large cap growth investor to question one’s rationale.  Year to date the NASDAQ is down 20.2% and … Read more

THE INTENSE VOLATILTY IS CONTINUING

Yesterday’s equity volatility was intense.  The S & P opened lower by over 1%, gained about 2% and then declined 1% in the last hour.   The volatility was even more intense in the NASDAQ. As widely discussed, Monday’s decline was the sharpest since October 2020.  Year to date, stocks have had the second worst start … Read more

ALL ABOUT THE UKRAINE?

Is it all now about the Ukraine?  The number of possible outcomes is infinite.  Oil is up about 4%.  Equity futures have retraced about two thirds of their previous losses.  Perhaps the only certainty to write is the uncertainty has again increased. As widely discussed, the markets are greatly influenced by algorithmic trading, trading that … Read more

ECONOMIC CALENDAR AND EARNINGS OF SEVERAL MEGA SIZED TECHNOLGIES

Volatility is rising.  The NASDAQ fell 7.5% for the week, the largest weekly decline since March 2020.  The NASDAQ is also on tract for the worst month since October 2008 according to CNBC.  Bloomberg writes 35% of Friday’s decline in the NASDAQ was the result of NFLX’s 22% plunge as earnings did not meet expectations. … Read more

A BIFURCATED MARKET

Markets were bifurcated on the re nomination of Fed Chair Powell.  It is widely assumed he will not alter the path of monetary policy. At casual observation, several bulge bracket firms have issued warnings that volatility in the markets can rise considerably.  Morgan Stanly believes the NASDAQ can stage a quick 10%-15% decline.  Bank America … Read more

A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY

Long dated Treasury prices fell almost two points on speculation the Federal Reserve may have to speed up its reduction of asset purchases after the fastest inflation in three decades.  As previously remarked, according to Bill Gross formerly of PIMCO, over the past several years the Fed has purchased 60% of net Treasury issuance. Currently … Read more