Led by the “reopening stocks” equities advanced following the biggest back to back selloff since October 2020. Volatility has gripped the market this week, the result of a more hawkish sounding Fed and the spread of Omicron. JP Morgan opines the recent selloff is an opportunity to position for a trend reversal in reopening and … Read more
Equities slumped after FRB Chair Powell suggested curbing bond purchases faster than expected. It is now forecasted the Fed would double the pace of acceleration, to $30 billion a month starting in January, wrapping up QE by mid-March. Powell also officially retired the word “transitory” as inflation has become imbedded in the economy. Few market … Read more
October’s labor report surprised on the upside. Both non-farm and private sector payrolls exceeded expectations, average hourly met expectations as did average hourly hours worked. It is evident higher wages are at helping employers fill near record job openings. The labor participation rate however remained unchanged at 61.6% versus a 61.7% estimate. As widely noted … Read more
The October Employment report is released at 8:30. Analysts are expecting a 450,000 and 420,000 increase in non-farm and private sector payrolls, respectively, a 4.7% unemployment rate, a 04% increase in average hourly earnings, a 34.8 hour work week and a 61.8% labor participation rate (LPR). As with past reports, considerable attention will be focused … Read more
Wow! What a week! The election outcome in New Jersey and Virginia was not expected. Volumes have already been written about the infinite number of potential ramifications. Then there is the Fed meeting. The Federal Reserve will begin winding down its monthly asset purchases later this month at a pace of $15 billion per month, … Read more
Yesterday was the inverse of the preceding day. Value out performed growth perhaps the result of consumer confidence data and the greatest jump in housing prices in more than three decades. Most people gauge their financial well being by the value of their home and as noted many times values are rising significantly in secondary … Read more
The growth in May’s nonfarm and private sector payrolls was again disappointing, the result of supply constraints. Revisions in April data was insignificant hence supporting the view of a shortage of workers. Wage growth was more than double than expected, average weekly hours are at a multiyear high and the labor participation rate (LPR) unexpectedly … Read more
Wow! July’s jobs surprised on the upside. As noted several times most, including me, expected a downside surprise. Non-farm payrolls rose by 1.763 million vs. the consensus view of 1.5 million. Private sector jobs rose by 1.462 million vs. the 1.2 million estimate. Prior month revisions were insignificant. The unemployment rate fell to 10.2% from 11.1%. … Read more
The WHO reported Friday the number of new coronavirus cases declined for the second consecutive day. Equites however ignored that factoid and sold off Friday on virus fears. I find it interesting however that according to Citicorp based upon hedges and the derivatives market, fear has peaked as demand for protection is back to levels … Read more
In my view the August labor report indicated more strength than weakness. Commenting about the perceived weakness, private sector and non farm payroll growth did nominally disappoint, posting a 130k and 96k increase, the gains were still considerably higher than the 100,000 new jobs required to maintain a steady unemployment rate. Speaking of which, the … Read more
