The headlines are absolutely apocalyptic, drowning out the more rational comments. NJ announced yesterday the rate of virus increases is diminishing. NY commented the percentage rise in infections is slowing. Italy, the world’s deadliest, the epidemic “is slowing appreciable” after a three-week lockdown. Newswires have ignored statistics such as according to the CDC 99.2% of … Read more
All markets surged yesterday on the tentative passage of the stimulus. As I have stated, I am wondering whether the cost is worse than the disease. As noted yesterday, the global economic cost is around $120 trillion. Wow! Below are some coronavirus odds. All data is from John Hopkins and were as of 5:00 PM … Read more
Twenty five years ago one of the top tier data points was the Leading Index of Economic Indicators (LEI). It was a hard and fast rule that three consecutive declines in the LEI all but assured a recession will occur in the next six months. Today it is regarded as fourth tier statistic with little … Read more
Barron’s wrote yesterday US technology firms are and will continue to bear the grunt of the trade war. In my view this is just the acknowledgment of the obvious given the current supply chains and methods of production for many technology products and services. Many times I have commented about the beginning of the massive … Read more
Initial estimates of second quarter GDP is released at 8:30. Analysts are expecting a 1.8% growth rate as the decline in inventories is expected to subtract about 1.3% from growth. This is the inverse from the first quarter when inventory accumulation added to GDP. Consumer spending is expected to increase by the most since 2014, … Read more
June’s PPI rose by 0.5%, more than the forecasted 0.3% gain and the largest increase since May 2015. April prices rose by 0.4%. For the 12 months prices are up 0.3%, the biggest year to year gain since December 2014. Excluding food and energy, prices climbed 0.4% following a 0.3% advance the prior month. These … Read more
Equites retraced their Fed induced advance. The dollar rallied and commodities were crushed further sending them to a fresh 16 year low. I believe trading was entirely dominated by HFTs as everyone knows higher short term interest rates suggests a higher dollar and lower commodity prices. However if the economy is strong enough to absorb … Read more
The Chairman of Shell stated with oil prices at current levels every oil firm will have to slash its budget, commenting further that most investments outside the Middle East does not make sense. He further stated oil prices declining another 20% might be too optimistic, opining prices could decline another 50%. Some of the gulf … Read more
