At 2:00 PM the Fed’s FOMC meeting concludes. There is near universal consensus the Committee will increase the overnight rate by 50 bps. The talk of a 75-bps jump is growing, the greatest increase since 1994. I could argue that if the Fed only goes 50 bps equities will fall under the proverbial guise the … Read more
The outcome of the two-day FOMC meeting will be announced at 2:00. It is widely expected the central bank will commence tapering in November or perhaps December. The question at hand is whether or not it will change its time line as to when it intends to increase the overnight rate. As noted several times, … Read more
FRB Chair’s much anticipated speech was not a watershed event. Powell essentially reiterated the messaging from the last FOMC statement and Minutes. If things evolve as expected, the Fed could start to taper asset purchases before year end. The overnight rate is to remain at current levels for the foreseeable future, perhaps the first rise … Read more
Will the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium be of any significance, defined as will there be a major change in monetary policy? In years’ past the Federal Reserve has used this platform to telegraph such. Last year the Central Bank outlined its plan to permit both inflation and growth to run above the speed limit. The … Read more
The FOMC meeting was largely a nonevent. There was no change in interest rates and made no change to asset purchases. The Committee essentially reiterated the prior meeting statement of “economic activity and employment have continued to recover but will remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year.” The FOMC also restated … Read more
I do not think it is an understatement to write the next two months might be one of the most contentious Presidential election season in decades. Drama will be great as COVID is the driving political issue. There are fears that changes to balloting may fuel legal challenges that could stall the outcome for days … Read more
Today marks the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting. No change in monetary policy is expected and most believe the Fed will continue with its dovish outlook. Yesterday Goldman put a spotlight on the suddenly growing concern over inflation by issuing a bold warning that the dollar is in danger of losing its status as … Read more
In my view, the outcome of the 2-day FOMC meeting largely met expectations. The Committee put a floor under its large-scale asset purchases and projected interest rates will remain near zero through at least 2022. The FOMC remarked “to support the flow of credit to household and businesses, over coming months the Federal Reserve will … Read more
Equities traded higher on quadruple witching hour. The yield curve also steepened and is at its steepest level in 15 months underscoring how recession worries have receded. The next question at hand will monetary policy assumptions be again questioned? The FOMC has continually stated it will rely upon the data to conduct monetary policy. If … Read more
It is often written the markets are a microcosm of the myopicy of current perspectives. The issue at hand is to recognize the next myopic dominating view. Will it be the dysfunctional funding market, a market that is providing the necessary liquidity only because of Fed intervention? December 16 quarterly taxes are due. Moreover demand … Read more
