May’s jobs data is released at 8:30. Analysts are expecting a 4.9% unemployment rate, a 160k and 150k increase in nonfarm and private sector payrolls, respectively, a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings, a 34.5 hour work week and a 62.8% labor participation rate.
Will this data support the rising narrative that the economy is growing around 3.0%?
Perhaps the only concrete statement to make is if the data differs greatly from the consensus view, the bullish or bearish conclusions will rise to a vitriol crescendo.
Yesterday’s data or outcome of two major meetings had little impact upon the markets. As largely expected, the status quo remains at both OPEC and the ECB. Weekly jobless claims and the ADP Private Sector Employment report also met views.
As inferred, markets were flat yesterday until a weak late day rally led by oil and healthcare.
Last night the foreign markets were up. London was up 0.92%, Paris up 0.51% and Frankfurt up 0.59%. China was up 0.53% Japan up 0.48% and Hang Sang up 0.42%.
The Dow should open flat but this could change radically if the data greatly differs from the expected levels. Oil is also flat. The 10-year is up 3/32 to yield 1.79%.
Chief Economic Strategist Managing Director
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