May’s jobs data is released at 8:30. Analysts are expecting a 4.9% unemployment rate, a 160k and 150k increase in nonfarm and private sector payrolls, respectively, a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings, a 34.5 hour work week and a 62.8% labor participation rate.
Will this data support the rising narrative that the economy is growing around 3.0%?
Perhaps the only concrete statement to make is if the data differs greatly from the consensus view, the bullish or bearish conclusions will rise to a vitriol crescendo.
Yesterday’s data or outcome of two major meetings had little impact upon the markets. As largely expected, the status quo remains at both OPEC and the ECB. Weekly jobless claims and the ADP Private Sector Employment report also met views.
As inferred, markets were flat yesterday until a weak late day rally led by oil and healthcare.
Last night the foreign markets were up. London was up 0.92%, Paris up 0.51% and Frankfurt up 0.59%. China was up 0.53% Japan up 0.48% and Hang Sang up 0.42%.
The Dow should open flat but this could change radically if the data greatly differs from the expected levels. Oil is also flat. The 10-year is up 3/32 to yield 1.79%.
Ken Engelke
Chief Economic Strategist Managing Director
The views expressed herein are those of Kent Engelke and do not necessarily reflect those of Capitol Securities Management. Any opinions expressed are statements of judgment on this date and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated or projected. Any future dividends, interest, yields and event dates listed may be subject to change. An investor cannot invest in an index, and its returns are not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. If you would like to unsubscribe from this e-mail distribution, please reply to this e-mail and indicate that you wish to unsubscribe in your response.
