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Trading yesterday felt similar to days earlier in the year as oil/commodities fell, the dollar and treasuries rallied and the major indices declined anywhere between 0.5% and 1.6%, the result of speculation that the FOMC is moving closer to raising interest rates.

Trading was about 25% below average daily volume.  As noted earlier trading for the first two days of this holiday shortened week is the slowest of the year.

Was yesterday of any significance?  I don’ think so as many dynamics have changed including growth assumptions and the outlook for oil given the massive infrastructure cuts that have occurred.  No markets ever move in a linear direction.

Today is expected to be another quiet day given many are leaving early for the three day weekend.

Last night the foreign markets were down. London was down 1.30%, Paris down 1.79% and Frankfurt down 1.35%.  China was down 1.39%,  Japan down 0.64%and Hang Sang down 1.31%.

The Dow should open moderately lower as oil is down about $1/barrel, partially the result of a raising dollar, a rise brought upon by yet another change in monetary policy assumptions. The 10-year is up 3/32 to yield 1.87%.

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Ken Engelke

Chief Economic Strategist Managing Director

The views expressed herein are those of Kent Engelke and do not necessarily reflect those of Capitol Securities Management. Any opinions expressed are statements of judgment on this date and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated or projected. Any future dividends, interest, yields and event dates listed may be subject to change. An investor cannot invest in an index, and its returns are not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. If you would like to unsubscribe from this e-mail distribution, please reply to this e-mail and indicate that you wish to unsubscribe in your response.